Category archive - Blog

Weekend: Dec 26 – Dec 27, 2020

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From SF Chinatown “Walkway Weekends”, to the Virtual Comedy Oakland: War on Christmas to “Black Laughs Matter” Virtual Comedy Show. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

Weekend: Dec 19 – Dec 20, 2020

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From adopting a furry new family member at Jack London Square from the SPCA, to the Indonesian Day Festival to 1880’s Vintage Baseball. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

Weekend: Dec 12 – Dec 13, 2020

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From the Makers Market in Walnut Creek, to the Outer Sunset Holiday Maker’s Market to “Family Fun Day” Online Nutcracker Dance Class. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

A Strange Year Begins Winding Down December 2020 San Francisco Real Estate

Though the pandemic upended many normal seasonal trends this year, the market did begin its typical “holiday season” slowdown in November – however activity remained well above levels of last year. It is unknown how the latest Covid-19 circumstances may affect the market in December, which is usually by far the slowest month of the year.

More importantly, we hope you and your loved ones stay safe and well during this challenging holiday season.

This first chart tracks percentage changes in median house sales price since 1990. It is based upon the Q1 2000 price being indexed to 100: A reading of 50 signifies a median price half that in Q1 2000; 200 means the price has doubled since then. In early 1990, the SF median house price was about $300,000; it is currently running about $1,650,000.

Year-over-year median sales prices for condos of various sizes, and for houses, in September through November of 2018, 2019 and 2020. A big increase in supply since the pandemic struck has led to declines in condo median sales prices.

A review of Q3 2020 median house sales prices (and SF condo prices) around the Bay Area. SF and San Mateo have been alternating in recent years for highest median house price. SF always has the highest median condo price in the region.

As is typical, the number of new listings plunged in November. In the first week of December – not illustrated on this chart – new listing activity ticked back up from the short Thanksgiving week, but remained well below pre-November numbers. December is usually the month with the lowest number of new listings coming on market.

With the decline in new listings, overall listing inventory dropped, but remained much higher than in previous years.

The number of condos on the market dramatically increased since the pandemic struck, but began to decline in November.

Market activity as measured by the number of listings going into contract is significantly higher on a year-over-year basis: over 40% higher in November 2020.

The below chart measures demand as compared to the supply of listings available to buy. By this metric, the house market has been significantly stronger than the market for condos since the pandemic struck.

Monthly home sales volume by property type:

The number of listings reducing price dropped in November, but remained elevated over previous years.

4 charts and tables looking at the luxury home markets of San Francisco and those within the larger region.

Link to Compass NorCal Luxury Home Market Report

The Bay Area counties which have seen the largest percentage increases in the sales of luxury homes since May have been Sonoma and Santa Cruz (despite the fires), and Monterey. Not shown on this chart: Lake Tahoe saw a incredible 187% jump in luxury home sales.

This next table looks highest priced listings on the market in early November, and the highest priced sales in the May-October period. Since it was compiled, a higher sale closed in San Francisco, in the Sea Cliff neighborhood, at $24,000,000.

If you’re looking for a home priced $5 million and above, these are the places where you will have the greatest choice of listings.

The post A Strange Year Begins Winding Down December 2020 San Francisco Real Estate first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Weekend: Nov 28 – Nov 29, 2020

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From adopting a furry new family member at Jack London Square from the SPCA, to the Indonesian Day Festival to 1880’s Vintage Baseball. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

Weekend: Nov 21 – Nov 22, 2020

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From the “HellaSecret” Comedy Show & Tiki Bar Night (San Francisco), to Free Pet Headshots in Golden Gate Park to the SFCM New Music Ensemble Concert. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

Weekend: Nov 14 – Nov 15, 2020

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From the SF Opera Online Costume Shop Sale (Nov. 13-15), to the “Makers Market” Mill Valley Lumber Yard (Open-Air Marketplace) to the SF Chinatown “Walkway Weekends”. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

San Francisco House & Condo Markets Diverge – November 2020 Report

SF house and condo markets have been affected differently by the pandemic. This report attempts a deeper dive into the data across the city and within different city districts.

The market typically starts a big slowdown in mid-November, running through the mid-winter holidays, until it begins to wake up in mid-January. High-price segments normally see the most dramatic plunges in mid-winter activity.

This year, the pandemic upended seasonality: Spring, usually the strongest selling season, saw a crash in activity; summer, which typically slows down – especially for luxury home sales – saw high demand; and the summer market accelerated into autumn. But supply has been accelerating even faster than demand.

We suspect late Q4 will see something of a slowdown, but remain more active than in past years.

Link to a comparative review of Bay Area County Markets.

General City Dynamics, House & Condo

Sales rebounded strongly from the early-spring pandemic crash: House sales are higher than in recent years and condo, co-op and TIC sales are at levels comparable to peak sales volumes over that period.

The most dramatic change is the increase in the number of listings for sale. Condo, co-op and TIC listings in MLS are at their highest point ever, approximately 85% higher than one year ago. House listings are also up, but much less dramatically, running about 20% to 25% higher than in autumn 2019.

Steady demand but soaring inventory has led to an increase in price reductions. When demand outweighs supply, buyers compete for listings, usually by overbidding. When supply outweighs demand, sellers often compete for buyers through price reductions. The condo market is probably seeing its highest number of reductions in history.

Long-term median sales price trends, 6-month rolling:

Year-over-year changes in median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values in selected home configurations. The condo market has been hit by significant declines in these 2 measurements.

Luxury Home Sales by Property Type & Price Segment

Of the luxury home segments broken out in the chart below, the market for houses selling for $3,000,000 to $4,999,999 (red line) has rebounded very strongly over the past 6 months, hitting a new peak in sales (on a 6-month rolling basis). The other segments – luxury condos and co-ops, and $5m+ houses – have seen much smaller rebounds from shelter-in-place lows, and remain far below previous peaks.

House Markets by District/Neighborhood

Within the city, there are significant differences in market dynamics by location. This report will look first at house markets, followed by a series of analyses on condo markets. How these charts apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

By most standard measurements, the greater Sunset/Parkside district has the strongest house market in the city with house values just below the SF median house price. At the softer end of dynamics are 2 of the city’s most expensive districts, which feature the largest luxury house segments.

Link to San Francisco Neighborhood Map

Overbidding on house listings is well down from the crazed levels of recent years, but is still relatively common in more affordable districts. Some part of the overbidding percentages is caused by strategic underpricing of listings (to get buyers excited).

A breakdown of house sales, $3 million and above, by district over the past 12 months.

San Francisco Condo Markets by District/Neighborhood

Since the pandemic hit, the softest condo markets have been those dominated by larger complexes and high-rises. The greater South Beach/ SoMa/ Mission Bay area – by far the largest condo market in SF – has the weakest supply and demand dynamic, followed by the greater Russian, Nob and Telegraph Hills area, and the Van Ness/Civic Center area.

Markets dominated by smaller buildings, often with separate unit entrances and dedicated outdoor spaces, have seen stronger buyer demand.

As a statistical average, overbidding above the original list price has disappeared from the condo market. This ties in with the previous chart on price reductions.

A breakdown of luxury condo, co-op and TIC sales – $2 million and above – by district.

The post San Francisco House & Condo Markets Diverge – November 2020 Report first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Weekend: Nov 7 – Nov 8, 2020

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From “Play Streets” Tenderloin Art Fest & Drum Circle, to the SF Chinatown “Walkway Weekends” to the Peninsula Humane Society’s A Home for the Holidays Virtual Gala. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.