Category archive - Blog

Weekend: Nov 14 – Nov 15, 2020

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From the SF Opera Online Costume Shop Sale (Nov. 13-15), to the “Makers Market” Mill Valley Lumber Yard (Open-Air Marketplace) to the SF Chinatown “Walkway Weekends”. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

San Francisco House & Condo Markets Diverge – November 2020 Report

SF house and condo markets have been affected differently by the pandemic. This report attempts a deeper dive into the data across the city and within different city districts.

The market typically starts a big slowdown in mid-November, running through the mid-winter holidays, until it begins to wake up in mid-January. High-price segments normally see the most dramatic plunges in mid-winter activity.

This year, the pandemic upended seasonality: Spring, usually the strongest selling season, saw a crash in activity; summer, which typically slows down – especially for luxury home sales – saw high demand; and the summer market accelerated into autumn. But supply has been accelerating even faster than demand.

We suspect late Q4 will see something of a slowdown, but remain more active than in past years.

Link to a comparative review of Bay Area County Markets.

General City Dynamics, House & Condo

Sales rebounded strongly from the early-spring pandemic crash: House sales are higher than in recent years and condo, co-op and TIC sales are at levels comparable to peak sales volumes over that period.

The most dramatic change is the increase in the number of listings for sale. Condo, co-op and TIC listings in MLS are at their highest point ever, approximately 85% higher than one year ago. House listings are also up, but much less dramatically, running about 20% to 25% higher than in autumn 2019.

Steady demand but soaring inventory has led to an increase in price reductions. When demand outweighs supply, buyers compete for listings, usually by overbidding. When supply outweighs demand, sellers often compete for buyers through price reductions. The condo market is probably seeing its highest number of reductions in history.

Long-term median sales price trends, 6-month rolling:

Year-over-year changes in median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values in selected home configurations. The condo market has been hit by significant declines in these 2 measurements.

Luxury Home Sales by Property Type & Price Segment

Of the luxury home segments broken out in the chart below, the market for houses selling for $3,000,000 to $4,999,999 (red line) has rebounded very strongly over the past 6 months, hitting a new peak in sales (on a 6-month rolling basis). The other segments – luxury condos and co-ops, and $5m+ houses – have seen much smaller rebounds from shelter-in-place lows, and remain far below previous peaks.

House Markets by District/Neighborhood

Within the city, there are significant differences in market dynamics by location. This report will look first at house markets, followed by a series of analyses on condo markets. How these charts apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

By most standard measurements, the greater Sunset/Parkside district has the strongest house market in the city with house values just below the SF median house price. At the softer end of dynamics are 2 of the city’s most expensive districts, which feature the largest luxury house segments.

Link to San Francisco Neighborhood Map

Overbidding on house listings is well down from the crazed levels of recent years, but is still relatively common in more affordable districts. Some part of the overbidding percentages is caused by strategic underpricing of listings (to get buyers excited).

A breakdown of house sales, $3 million and above, by district over the past 12 months.

San Francisco Condo Markets by District/Neighborhood

Since the pandemic hit, the softest condo markets have been those dominated by larger complexes and high-rises. The greater South Beach/ SoMa/ Mission Bay area – by far the largest condo market in SF – has the weakest supply and demand dynamic, followed by the greater Russian, Nob and Telegraph Hills area, and the Van Ness/Civic Center area.

Markets dominated by smaller buildings, often with separate unit entrances and dedicated outdoor spaces, have seen stronger buyer demand.

As a statistical average, overbidding above the original list price has disappeared from the condo market. This ties in with the previous chart on price reductions.

A breakdown of luxury condo, co-op and TIC sales – $2 million and above – by district.

The post San Francisco House & Condo Markets Diverge – November 2020 Report first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Weekend: Nov 7 – Nov 8, 2020

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From “Play Streets” Tenderloin Art Fest & Drum Circle, to the SF Chinatown “Walkway Weekends” to the Peninsula Humane Society’s A Home for the Holidays Virtual Gala. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

Weekend: Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From the 20th Ave Halloween Pop-Up Event, to the Halloween Costume Beach Clean Up + Free Ghirardelli Chocolate to Spooktacular Saturday at San Pedro Square Market. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

Weekend: Oct 24 – Oct 25, 2020

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From the “San Francisco Int’l Arts Festival” Live Open Air Shows (Oct. 24-25), to the SF Chinatown “Walkway Weekends” to Hauntingly Virtual Halloween Costume Contest. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

Weekend: Oct 17 – Oct 18, 2020

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From the Virtual Wildlife Conservation Expo, to the Women’s March: 8 Bay Area Sister Protests to the 20th Ave Pop-Up Vendor Event. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

Weekend: Oct 10 – Oct 11, 2020

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From the Virtual Wildlife Conservation Expo, to the de Young Museum’s Free Saturdays to West Coast Craft Market 2020: 50 Vendors Outdoors at Fort Mason. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

San Francisco: 7 Months After the Pandemic Hit | October 2020 Report

The table below compares Q3 statistics across 5 years. Since the dynamics of the SF house and condo markets have significantly diverged since the pandemic struck – the condo market has been weaker – we broke some of the 2020 stats out separately in the table, and then in some of the charts following.

The inventory of condo listings on the market has been soaring, and price reductions are heavily concentrated in the condo market. Hundreds are still selling each month and that number has been rebounding in the last couple months – but increases in supply continue to outpace demand. Within the condo market, the high-rise segment appears to be the weakest, almost certainly due to pandemic-related reasons.

Median sales prices can rise because of increases in fair market value – i.e. buyers are paying more money for the same home (supply and demand) – and/or because buyers are purchasing larger or more expensive houses. Affluent and very affluent buyers are an increasing percentage of the total market throughout the Bay Area. In San Francisco, the average size of houses sold in Q3 jumped almost 6% year over year.

Long-Term Trends in Median Sales Prices
through YTD 2020

Annual Percentage Changes in Median Sales Prices through YTD 2020

We have been getting many questions on annual percentages up and down in median sales prices, so we updated the following 2 charts. The 2020 YTD percentage will almost certainly change, one way or another, by the time full-year sales data is in.

Luxury Home Sales by Quarter

Q2 is typically the strongest selling season for luxury homes, but the pandemic changed that dynamic in 2020. Though the SF luxury segment recovered in Q3, in many other counties around the Bay, luxury home sales have soared to all-time highs.

Active inventory has been surging in recent months (first chart below), as has the months supply of inventory (second chart). As mentioned before, the supply of condos for sale is currently dominating SF inventory.

Even if supply is outpacing demand, more listings went into contract in September than in any month in the last 2 years.

But the number of price reductions – again heavily concentrated in the condo market – has jumped to its highest point in many years. In certain segments, sellers are now competing for buyers, instead of buyers competing for listings.

Median House & Condo Sales Price Trends by District

The 3 charts below are focused on the districts in which the greatest number of house or condo sales occur. The first 2 refer to house sales and the third to condo sales.

The post San Francisco: 7 Months After the Pandemic Hit | October 2020 Report first appeared on Paragon Specific.

San Francisco: 7 Months After the Pandemic Hit | October 2020 Report

The table below compares Q3 statistics across 5 years. Since the dynamics of the SF house and condo markets have significantly diverged since the pandemic struck – the condo market has been weaker – we broke some of the 2020 stats out separately in the table, and then in some of the charts following.

The inventory of condo listings on the market has been soaring, and price reductions are heavily concentrated in the condo market. Hundreds are still selling each month and that number has been rebounding in the last couple months – but increases in supply continue to outpace demand. Within the condo market, the high-rise segment appears to be the weakest, almost certainly due to pandemic-related reasons.

Median sales prices can rise because of increases in fair market value – i.e. buyers are paying more money for the same home (supply and demand) – and/or because buyers are purchasing larger or more expensive houses. Affluent and very affluent buyers are an increasing percentage of the total market throughout the Bay Area. In San Francisco, the average size of houses sold in Q3 jumped almost 6% year over year.

Long-Term Trends in Median Sales Prices
through YTD 2020

Annual Percentage Changes in Median Sales Prices through YTD 2020

We have been getting many questions on annual percentages up and down in median sales prices, so we updated the following 2 charts. The 2020 YTD percentage will almost certainly change, one way or another, by the time full-year sales data is in.

Luxury Home Sales by Quarter

Q2 is typically the strongest selling season for luxury homes, but the pandemic changed that dynamic in 2020. Though the SF luxury segment recovered in Q3, in many other counties around the Bay, luxury home sales have soared to all-time highs.

Active inventory has been surging in recent months (first chart below), as has the months supply of inventory (second chart). As mentioned before, the supply of condos for sale is currently dominating SF inventory.

Even if supply is outpacing demand, more listings went into contract in September than in any month in the last 2 years.

But the number of price reductions – again heavily concentrated in the condo market – has jumped to its highest point in many years. In certain segments, sellers are now competing for buyers, instead of buyers competing for listings.

Median House & Condo Sales Price Trends by District

The 3 charts below are focused on the districts in which the greatest number of house or condo sales occur. The first 2 refer to house sales and the third to condo sales.

The post San Francisco: 7 Months After the Pandemic Hit | October 2020 Report first appeared on Paragon Specific.