San Francisco Real Estate Agent
San Francisco Real Estate Agent
| Oct. 2010 | Sept. 2010 | Oct. 2009 | |
| CA Unemployment Rate | 12.4% |
12.4%
|
12%
|
Unemployment Statewide The above chart depicts joblessness in California over the past 30+ years as a percentage of the state’s total labor force, and encompasses several run-of-the-mill recessions. As shown on the charts, unemployment over the past year has lingered at a higher percentage of the labor force than at any time in recent history, following the sharpest spike in unemployment since the Great Depression. Expect our recovery to be correspondingly longer than the recessions of the past 35 years. The above figures do not include those who have dropped out of the job market or are voluntarily unemployed.
Copyright © 2010 by first tuesday Realty Publications, Inc
P.O. Box 20069, Riverside, CA 92516
Used with permission
Today is a buying opportunity in real estate – the low prices, incredible interest rates and opportunities to negotiate present a unique time for buyers that we have not seen until recently. But buyers are understandably nervous. What if the market goes down more? Will my property ever be worth more than today? This chart shows very clearly that real estate over the last 10 years, even with the drop since 2008 has provided a much greater chance for Return on Investment than any stock market index available for investment (commodities markets are not compared). The benefits of owning real estate as a long-term investment are many and besides owning the home you live in, there are a multitude of ways to take advantage of today’s market. I help investors build a strategy for a diversified portfolio of real estate holdings and am working with women in particular to help develop investment plans. Call me to discuss your potential to become a real estate investor. There’s never a better time than today.
The monthly Market Charts Dynamics newsletter will come out next week (after all November’s data is in).
Here is the updated ROI Chart comparing major stock indices with SF home values since January 2000. Comparing stocks with real estate is like comparing apples with bagels, but still it’s kind of interesting.
Weekly Activity Charts through November 28th.
Listings Accepting Offers by Week: big drop off for short Thanksgiving week, but still more activity than several weeks during the summer, and only 16% below the weekly average for the past 6 months. Buyers still seem to be out there making deals.
Listings Actively for Sale: continuing to drop as is common as the holidays begin. The lowest number in the past 6 months, but still high for this time of year.
New Listings Coming on Market: very low for the short Thanksgiving week. Considering how buyer demand has held up, and how little competition there is from other new listings, this might be a good time to bring on a new listing (instead of waiting until January).
Sold Listings to Expired/Withdrawn Listings: a lot of listings are expiring or being withdrawn in advance of the holiday month – in the last 4 week, more listings have been removed from the market than sold. Many of the expired/withdrawn listings will probably come back on the market in January at reduced prices.

The past and future of jobs in California: the number of people employed:
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October 2010
13,938,200
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September 2010
13,838,400
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October 2009
13,963,000
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Current, detailed employment numbers for California’s biggest counties:
To understand the real estate market, look first at state employment.
The quantity of jobs in California directly impacts homeownership statewide. Without a paycheck, nobody can afford to rent an apartment, or buy a house, unless they are subsidized by the government or possess substantial independent wealth. The basis for an individual’s creditworthiness, essential if they are to borrow money for housing, is the paycheck, self-employed earnings from a trade or business, or income from investments.
Copyright © 2010 by first tuesday Realty Publications, Inc
P.O. Box 20069, Riverside, CA 92516
Used with permission
32,669 new and resale homes closed escrow in California during October 2010, down 21% from one year ago when 41,280 sales closed escrow. Statewide, sales volume has continued to show its recent downward trend both in annual and monthly sales: home sales have dropped slowly but consistently since June of this year. Southern California (SoCal) home sales are trending downward more quickly than Northern California (NorCal).
Real estate owned (REO) resales accounted for 36% of all resales in the third quarter 2010— down from 39% of resales one year earlier. Declining REOs are good news, but the drop is not likely to continue into 2011, as delinquencies have recently been on the rise in California.
Speculators and investors accounted for 22% of resales in SoCal and 20% in the Bay Area. The high-tier home market, or “jumbo loans” (here represented by all loans of over $419,000) accounted for 18% of resales in SoCal and 34% of NorCal sales, up from 16% and 31% one year earlier. The rise in jumbo loans indicates high-tier properties are becoming an increasing portion of total home sales, most likely due to increasing defaults in the high-tier range, which forces owners to sell their properties at lower and more attractive prices.
Federal Housing Administration (FHA)-insured loans represented 36% of SoCal and 26% of Bay Area mortgages recorded in August 2010, virtually unchanged from their numbers one year earlier. These drops in FHA-insured originations are consistent with the fact that expensive homes have become a higher percentage of resales. This will change in the future, however, as other government agencies are now guaranteeing almost all conventional loans, including loans with lower downpayments and downpayments from unconventional sources (such as gifts).
Adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) made up 5% of total mortgages in SoCal and 9% of NorCal mortgages. This reflects a slight downward trend line in ARMS which peaked in May 2010 at 6.5% of total mortgages, and is a good indicator the market volume will not increase nor will prices over the next 12 to 24 months.
Cash purchases represented 27% of SoCal and 26% of NorCal sales in October, indicating that speculators are still at work, probably flipping under land sales contracts or let-to-buy arrangements called lease-option sales which go unrecorded. These transactions remain, for the most part, invisible to the public.
Copyright © 2010 by first tuesday Realty Publications, Inc
P.O. Box 20069, Riverside, CA 92516
Used with permission
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