Category archive - Blog

Weekend: Apr 20 – Apr 21, 2019

This weekend has a ton of great things to do for free and on the cheap with all of the Earth Day events across the Bay Area. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

Weekend: Apr 13 – Apr 14, 2019

This weekend there are so many great things to do for free and on the cheap. From the Annual Goat Festival at the Ferry Building in SF, to the 88th Annual Easter Egg Hunt in South San Francisco to Record Store Day 2019. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

San Francisco Real Estate Home Prices, Sales & Statistics; Stock Markets; Interest Rates and Unicorns in Spring

A substantial portion of Q1 statistics reflect new listings and accepted offers occurring during the mid-winter market doldrums (Thanksgiving to mid-January). In November and December 2018, the stock market plunged drastically from its all-time high in September, and interest rates hit their highest point in years: these factors negatively affected buyer demand. Then both turned in dramatically positive directions in early 2019. So, Q1 statistics reflect economic conditions in both Q4 2018 (very negative) and Q1 2019 (very positive). It is also the quarter with the lowest sales volume.

The spring selling season – whose data starts to show up in March, but is mostly reflected in Q2 – is the most active of the year, and also typically sees the highest rates of appreciation. As always, there are many economic factors at play impacting Bay Area markets, some of which are discussed below.

Year-over-Year & Longer-Term Trends

Median Sales Prices

Median house sales prices dropped dramatically from last spring, but then spiked up again in March 2019. Spring is typically the season when median prices increase most.

The biggest change since last spring as been a switch from high year-over-year quarterly appreciation rates to zero appreciation and a slight decline in the last 2 quarters. What occurs this spring will be critical to understanding market trends.

New Listings Coming on Market

Year-over-year, there was a plunge in the number of new listings coming on market in Q1 – new listings almost always climb from January through March, but not this year. Were sellers waiting for a hoped-for rush of new IPO millionaires to appear? Will new listing inventory jump now that the IPOs have begun to occur? Q2 will provide much more data regarding the media-frenzy “IPO effect.”

Luxury Home Sales

There has been a significant drop in MLS sales of luxury condos. The jump in the number of new, luxury (and ultra-luxury) condos being built is creating a surge of supply that has increased the competition between sellers for buyers’ attention. (Many new-project luxury condos are neither listed nor their sales reported to MLS, and so are not reflected in this chart.)

Selected Economic Factors
Stock Markets & Unicorn IPOs

A wild ride in stock prices, particularly in high-tech: Prices soared to new peaks in summer-early autumn 2018, plunged drastically in Q4 2018, and then saw the biggest Q1 jump in 20 years. Huge amounts of wealth appearing, disappearing and reappearing – a major influence on consumer confidence and home-buyer demand.

A new surge of large, high-tech unicorn IPOs – mostly of firms headquartered in SF – has just started to roll out. IPOs have historically created vast quantities of new wealth in the Bay Area, though the magnitude of the effect of this new wave on the SF housing market is yet unknown – but currently fiercely disputed. Anecdotally, there have certainly been reports of buyers moving more quickly to beat the “rush of new millionaires” and of sellers waiting to list in order to catch the rush (see New Listing chart above).

Employment

A gigantic factor underlying Bay Area housing markets has been the staggering increase in employed residents since 2010. Outward-bound migration trends of residents and businesses – often citing housing costs as one major motivator – have been an increasing concern in recent years, but for the time being, employment numbers have continued to grow.

New Home Construction

Due to a number of factors, including a rapid increase in land and construction costs, new housing construction in SF dropped dramatically in 2018. The quantity of new homes being built plays a significant role in the supply and demand equation, and thus home prices.

Interest Rates

There has been a stunning decline in mortgage interest rates from mid-November 2018 through the end of March, from 4.94% to 4.06% – to the enormous advantage to buyers. Big drops such as this have helped to recharge buyer demand in the past.

Housing Affordability & Household Incomes

This chart calculates the income required to buy a median-price house in Q4 2018. Median condo prices are substantially less in every county and would require lower incomes.

County median household incomes are broken out below for homeowners and tenants – some Bay Area county incomes are among the highest in the country. However, comparing the chart below to the one above illustrates the disparity between prevailing incomes and the incomes required to purchase in the Bay Area.

Health & Economic Indicators

According to a 2018 ranking of state health conditions by the Commonwealth Fund, California ranks 14th in the nation (1st being best – Hawaii). According to CountyHealthRankings.org, Bay Area counties are at the top of the list within CA for Overall Health Outcomes: Marin, San Mateo and Santa Clara rank 1, 2 & 3, while SF is 8th. On the less positive side, SF has the highest income inequality ratio in the state.

Weekend: Apr 6 – Apr 7, 2019

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From Free Saturdays at the de Young Museum to the Cambodian Khmer New Year Festival in Oakland to Contra Costa Spring Home & Landscape Show. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

Weekend: Mar 30 – Mar 31, 2019

This weekend provides a ton of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From the Ching Ming Festival: Chinese Day of Ancestor Worship in Oakland, to TreasureFest to The San Francisco Dessert Festival in SoMa. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

Weekend: Mar 23 – Mar 24, 2019

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. Check Out SF’s Brand New Rain Garden in McLaren Park or the Holi Festival: The Biggest Color Party in The Bay Area in Fremont. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

Source

The San Francisco Real Estate Spring Market Begins

Spring 2018 was one of the hottest markets in SF and the Bay Area in the last 2 decades. Then the market began to cool in summer and autumn – demand, sales and appreciation rates generally dropping, while supply and price reductions increased – before the mid-winter doldrums took hold. The magnitude of these changes varied by county, with SF less affected than many others, but still certainly affected.

Since the recovery began in 2012, spring has typically been the most active season of the year, and usually the period during which appreciation gains have been the largest. The spring 2019 market is just getting started amid a diverse set of economic indicators. Financial markets have, so far, recovered in 2019, interest rates have dropped, and big local IPOs loom. We will know much more soon.

Long-Term, Annual Median Price Trends

Short-Term Median Price Trends
3-Month Rolling Figures

Looking at 3-month rolling median sales prices, the SF median house price was virtually unchanged on a year-over-year basis, while the median condo price (second chart below) ticked up a little – but the critical issue is what will happen in the spring months, when sales volumes are much higher.

Median Sales Price Appreciation
1998 – 2018, by District

Markets appreciate due to a wide variety of local and macro-economic reasons: economic cycles, industry booms, inflation, consumer confidence, interest rates, employment, gentrification, new construction, comparative affordability (to other nearby markets), population growth, buyers’ median age, commuting, fashion, and so forth. The combination of factors affecting any particular neighborhood or district in the city is often specific to that market.

In SF and around the Bay Area, more expensive homes have generally appreciated less than more affordable homes, especially over the last 3-4 years. On the other hand, during the last downturn after 2008, the prices of more expensive homes usually declined significantly less. These appreciation percentages should be considered very approximate.

House Median Sales Price Changes
1998 – 2018

Condo Median Price Changes
1998 – 2018

What’s for Sale in San Francisco
as of March 1, 2019

Active Listings by Price Segment
March 1, 2019

The number of active listings fluctuates daily, and the numbers below are increasing as more new listings come on market. These next 3 charts are snapshots of active listings on March 1st.

Houses for Sale by District
with Median LIST Prices. 3/1/19

The supply of listings available to purchase varies widely between city districts, which can be a simple reflection of market size and/or an indicator of supply and demand dynamics. If median LIST prices (below) are well above 2018 median SALES prices (delineated earlier in this report), it is typically a sign that the balance in listings for sale is disproportionately weighted towards higher priced properties, where demand is softer – and/or a sign of overpricing beyond what buyers consider fair market value.

Condos for Sale by District
with Median LIST Prices, 3/1/19

Market Seasonality
New Listings Coming on Market

New inventory usually starts pouring into the market right now, in early spring, to fuel the biggest selling season of the year.

Active Listings on Market

Sales Volume by Month – General Market

The number of sales in the first 2 months of 2019 was down from the same period of 2018, but these are the 2 lowest sales-volume months of the year. A much more significant indicator will be what occurs over the next 4 months during the classic spring selling season. Sales are a somewhat lagging indicator, as they mostly reflect new listings and accepted-offer activity in the previous month or two.

Luxury Home Sales by Month

Market Statistics by City District

In SF and around the Bay Area, higher-priced areas have generally had somewhat cooler markets than more affordable markets in recent years, which is reflected in the next 4 charts. But home price is certainly not the only factor at play in these different neighborhoods.

Sales Price to Original List Price %

Any percentage over 100% reflects overbidding of asking price. Though these percentages have declined somewhat in the past 6 months, they are still incredibly high compared to most other places in the Bay Area and the U.S..

Unlike the house market, various city districts have seen high volumes of newly constructed condos in the last 3 to 4 years, and the increased supply has affected the condo markets in those areas.

Average Days on Market by District

Comparing Bay Area Markets
Homes for Sale under $1 Million
as of March 1, 2019

Bay Area Luxury Homes for Sale
as of March 1, 2019

Bay Area Median Sales Prices, Q4 2018

On a quarterly basis, the highest median house sales price in the Bay Area has been alternating between San Francisco and San Mateo Counties.

County to County Migration

People move to SF and the Bay Area from all over the country and the world, and people leave to move to a vast number of locations, for differing reasons. This analysis looks at those counties with the greatest number of people moving to and from SF. In many cases, there is a large exchange between 2 counties, with residents going in both directions. Often, but not always, the outward flow is greater to counties with more affordable home prices, but there are many factors – such as schools, employment and quality of life issues – at play. (Cook County is where Chicago is located.)

Demographics Snapshot
Educational Attainment
San Francisco vs. U.S.

San Francisco, as well as the greater metro area, is very highly educated against national norms.

Education & Income
Disparity between the Sexes

An indicator of the income-generating value of education, along with an unhappy indicator of where progress remains to be made in income equality. (As an aside, real estate is certainly one of the first professions that saw income equality established between the sexes: Women have been holding their own and sometimes dominating rankings of top Bay Area agents for many decades.)

The statistics in this report are very general and approximate indicators based upon listing and sales data pertaining to assortments, of varying size, of relatively unique homes across a broad spectrum of locations and qualities. How these statistics apply to the current value, appreciation trend, and prevailing market conditions of any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Weekend: Mar 9 – Mar 10, 2019

This weekend has plenty of amazing things to do for free and on the cheap. From the Annual International Women’s Day Festival in Oakland to Tech Week’s Mini Maker Faire in Berkeley. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

Weekend: Mar 2 – Mar 3, 2019

This weekend provides many fun things to do for free and on the cheap. From the Magnolia Plant Sale at the SF Botanical Garden, to the Spring Craft Market in Novato to Millbrae Lunar New Year Festival. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.