Category archive - Blog

This Weekend: Nov 3 – Nov 4, 2018

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From the Dia de Los Muertos Festival in San Mateo, to the Bay Area Science Festival at AT&T Park to the Bay Area Record Fair in Oakland. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!
View more events here.

What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for less and half for more. Average dollar per square foot reflects the livable interior space of a home and does not include garages, storage, rooms built without permit, decks or outdoor space – not all sales report square footage, and interior square footage can be measured in different ways. Both of these statistics are generalities that disguise a huge variety of values in the underlying individual sales.

All our Bay Area real estate market analyses can be found here: Paragon Reports

House, Condo & TIC Sales Volumes by District

SF Neighborhood Home Price Tables, July 2018 Update
Median & Average Values by Property Type & Bedroom Count

Overviews on Home Price Appreciation

More appreciation analyses are here: SF neighborhood price appreciation charts

Home Sales & Prices within SF Districts/Neighborhoods

These charts below give much more detail than a single median sales price for, say, a 3-bedroom house in the Sunset District. If you already know the neighborhoods or areas of San Francisco you wish to concentrate on in your home search, these breakdowns will give you a better idea of what you will be able to find at different price points within each one. The following are generally by Realtor district. Sometimes, there is a wide variation of prices within a single district.

The first 4 charts are city overviews. Then district house and condo sales breakdowns follow.
If buying or thinking about buying, these reports have even more information and illustrate other angles on San Francisco home values and market conditions:

All Paragon Market Analyses
San Francisco Market Overview Analytics
Our Latest San Francisco Market Conditions Report
Tips for San Francisco Homebuyers

As always, the quality of the specific location and the range of amenities of the property; its curb appeal, condition, size and graciousness; and the existence and quality of parking, views and outside space can all significantly impact unit values.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and how they apply to any specific property is unknown without a tailored comparative market analysis. Sales statistics of one month generally reflect offers negotiated 4 – 6 weeks earlier. Median sales prices often change with even the smallest change in the period of time or parameters of the analysis. All numbers should be considered approximate.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

This Weekend: Jul 14 – Jul 15, 2018

This weekend offers plenty of fun things to do for free and on the cheap. From the SF From Bastille Day Outdoor Festival, to the 40th Street Summer Block Party in Oakland to Shakespeare’s “Hamlet” In The Park in Berkeley. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

2018 YTD: A Wild Ride for San Francisco Real Estate

By any measure, the heat of the San Francisco market in the first half of 2018 has been among the most blistering ever. Probably only 3 or 4 other periods over the past 50 years have seen a comparable intensity of buyer demand vis a vis the supply of listing inventory available to purchase. This despite both significant increases in interest rates and changes in federal tax law severely limiting the deductibility of mortgage interest and property tax costs. As mentioned before, the market is particularly ferocious in the lower and middle-price segments of house sales.

Annual Dollar Value Appreciation

Appreciation is typically viewed through the lens of percentage changes, but looking at the actual increase in dollars paid for a median priced home is perhaps more visceral. These two charts below measure dollar increases in annual median sales prices for houses and then condos. The last columns in each chart measure 2018 YTD median sales price increases against the 2017 median sales price. (The links illustrate the traditional percentage changes.)

Comparing the first half of 2018 to 2017, the median house sales price in San Francisco increased by an astounding $205,000 (per sales reported by 7/3/18). For condos, the increase was also very substantial, at about $71,000.

Link to PERCENTAGE rate appreciation chart: SF houses

Link to PERCENTAGE rate appreciation chart: SF condos

It is not a given that the second half of the year will see home price appreciation at similar rates: Prices could increase further, or they might plateau or even tick down instead. (As can be seen above, home prices can go down as well as up, though longer term trends have always been positive.) For the last 7 years, spring has typically been the most feverish selling season of the year and has often provided most of the appreciation occurring in the full year.

Median sales prices are often affected by other factors besides changes in fair
market value, such as changes in inventory, new home sales or luxury home sales.

San Francisco Home Price Map

We just updated our interactive map of median house and condo sales prices for the 70-odd San Francisco neighborhoods, reflecting the last 12 months sales reported to MLS, which can be accessed by clicking on the map above, or through this link: What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco.

Market Dynamics Statistics

The decline in new listings, especially of houses, has been
a critical factor in the upward pressure on prices.

As houses have become the scarce resource in the SF market,
overbidding percentages have gone into the stratosphere (though
strategic underpricing has also played a role).

New lows in average days-on-market since the 2012 recovery began:
Listings have been snapped up faster than at any time in the past 7 years.

Market activity typically starts slowing significantly in July
before spiking up again in the short autumn selling season.

San Francisco Luxury Home Sales
as reported to MLS

The second quarter of 2018 saw the highest quarterly number of SF homes selling for $2 million and above: When late-reported sales are entered into MLS, we expect the total to be over 320 for the 3-month period, far exceeding the previous high of 267 sales in Q2 2017. However, looking at higher-priced sales of $3m+, Q2 2018 is just a handful of transactions ahead of the Q2 2015 total of 97.

The luxury home market is even more intensely seasonal
in its dynamics than the general market.

Luxury condo sales in San Francisco hit a new high in May 2018.
(Sales reported to MLS: new project sales would increase these numbers.)

For the last few years, luxury house sales have more often peaked in October.

Neighborhood Home Prices & Trends

Below are a few of the many new charts and tables from our updated report on neighborhood sales and values (What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco).

Home Price Tables by Bedroom Count

Where Best to Look in Your Price Range

District Overview Appreciation Trends

Median sales price appreciation in the four biggest districts for house sales by quantity of sales. (Note: districts contain a multitude of neighborhoods.)

Median price appreciation for 2-bedroom condos and co-ops
in the 5 biggest condo-sales districts by number of sales.

If you would like to see home prices or appreciation trends for a city district
or neighborhood not included above, please let us know. We cover them all.

The San Francisco Building Boom

Approximately 68,000 housing units are now in the SF new construction pipeline. Virtually all of them are apartments or condos: New house construction is minimal in the city, and has been so for over 50 years. Condos, new and resale, are now the dominant property type in market sales volume.

Just because a project is in the pipeline does not guarantee it will be built as planned. Plans are constantly being added, changed and abandoned. New housing construction is extremely sensitive to changes in economic conditions.

All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

Median sales prices may change as late-reported sales are entered into MLS. Typically, such changes are not material to the overall trends illustrated.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

This Weekend: Jun 30 – Jul 1, 2018

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From the Fillmore Jazz Festival, to the Soy & Tofu Festival in Japantown to the “Big Rocky Games” at Russian River. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

Did Tax Reform Kill the Luxury Market? NOT SO FAR!

The new tax code limits the deduction of state and local property taxes, as well as income or sales taxes, to a total of $10,000. When the tax reform legislation was put into law at the beginning of the year, some experts felt that it could have a negative impact on the luxury housing market.

Capital Economics:

“The impact on expensive homes could be detrimental, with a limit on the MID raising taxes for those that itemize.”

Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics:

“The impact on house prices is much greater for higher-priced homes, especially in parts of the country where incomes are higher and there are thus a disproportionate number of itemizers, and where homeowners have big mortgages and property tax bills.”

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicted price declines in “high cost, higher tax areas” because of the tax changes. They forecasted a depreciation of 6.2% in New Jersey and 4.8% in Washington D.C. and New York.

What has actually happened?

Here are a few metrics to consider before we write-off the luxury market:

1. According to NAR’s latest Existing Home Sales Report, here is the percent change in sales from last year:

  • Homes sales between $500,000 – $750,000 are up 11.9%
  • Homes sales between $750,000 – $1M are up 16.8%
  • Homes sales over $1,000,000 are up 26.7%

2. In a report from Trulia, it was revealed that searches for “premium” homes as a percentage of all searches increased from 38.4% in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 41.4% in the first quarter of 2018.

3. According to an article from Bloomberg:

“Median home values nationally rose 8 percent in March compared with a year earlier, while neighborhoods of San Francisco and San Jose, California, have increased more than 25 percent.

Prices in affluent areas in Delaware and New York, such as the Hamptons, also surged more than 20 percent.”

Bottom Line

Aaron Terrazas, Zillow’s Senior Economist, probably summed up real estate’s luxury market the best:

“We are seeing the opposite of what was expected. We have certainly not seen the doomsday predictions play out.”


Your Guide to SFMOMA This Summer

Make the most of your visit to the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art (SFMOMA) in summer 2018 with these suggested highlights, including the magic and mystery of artist René Magritte and the powerful photography of Susan Meiselas.

René Magritte: The Fifth Season

On view through Oct. 28, this worldwide exclusive presentation features the famed artist’s later paintings, including more than 20 artworks never seen in the United States before. Explore Magritte’s otherworldly images in which day becomes night, birds become sky, and boulders hover in midair. His beautiful, powerful, and mysterious images are a timely reminder that not all is what it seems. Please note: Tickets to this special exhibition are available separate from general admission. For more information and to purchase special exhibition tickets for The Fifth Season, click here.

Susan Meiselas: Mediations

Opening July 21 and on view through Oct. 21, this photography exhibition showcases Meiselas’s iconic portraits of carnival strippers, her vivid color photographs of conflict in Central America, and more, exploring subjects ranging from the personal to the geopolitical. For more information, click here.

Floor 7

Three captivating not-to-miss contemporary shows are on view on the seventh floor this summer. Sublime Seas: John Akomfrah and J.M.W. Turner is an aural and visual odyssey across a three-channel video presentation, encompassing fiction, documentary, and essay on the variety of maritime history. In Nothing Stable under Heaven, the contested past, turbulent present, and unpredictable future are reflected upon, examining how individual artists respond to urgent issues of our time. Also on view is Jim Campbell’s mesmerizing light installation, Tilted Plane, featuring hundreds of suspended incandescent bulbs that have had their filaments replaced by LEDs, creating the perception of moving imagery. All three shows are on view through Sept. 16.

The Art of the Meal

From family-friendly, California-fusion at Cafe 5 on Floor 5, to Michelin-star dining at ground-floor In Situ, there is a range of options for anyone looking to fuel up and fight museum fatigue. Sightglass on Floor 3 is perfect for a lighter choice, with Instagram-worthy coffee creations and treats. For foodies, the cuisine at SFMOMA can be as much of a draw as the art!

The Museum Store

No visit to SFMOMA is complete without a stop at the Museum Store on Floors 1 and 2. Curated as carefully as the exhibitions, the store’s collection of books, home goods, jewelry, toys, and more is the perfect one-stop-shop. Every purchase supports SFMOMA’s exhibitions and education programs. For more information, click here.

SFMOMA is conveniently located in the Yerba Buena arts district, near both Union Square and The Moscone CenterGroups of 10 or more can save on general admission, and tour operator rates and private guided tours may be available.


This Weekend: Jun 23 – Jun 24, 2018

This weekend has lots of great things to do for free and on the cheap. From the Italian Street Painting Festival in San Rafael, to the TreasureFest’s Summer of Love on Treasure Island to the Annual Lake Fest at Lake Merritt. The events below will help you fill your calendar with fun!

View even more events here.

Don’t Wait to Sell Your House! Buyers Are Out Now

Recently released data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) suggests that now is a great time to sell your home. The concept of ‘supply & demand’ reveals that the best price for an item is realized when the supply of that item is low and the demand for that item is high.

Let’s see how this applies to the current residential real estate market.


It is no secret that the supply of homes for sale has been far below the number needed to sustain a normal market for over a year at this point. A normal market requires six months of housing inventory to meet the demand. The latest report from NAR revealed that there is currently only a 3.6-month supply of houses on the market.

Supply is currently very low!


A report that was just released tells us that demand is very strong. The most recent Foot Traffic Report(which sheds light on the number of buyers who are actually out looking at homes) disclosed that “foot traffic grew 10.5 points to 52.4 in March as the new season approaches.”

Demand is currently very high!

Bottom Line

Waiting to sell will only increase the competition between you and all of the other sellers putting their houses on the market later this summer. If you are debating whether or not to list your home, contact a local real estate professional who can explain the conditions in your market.